Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
