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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. However, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking upset.

But the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and recent underperformers improving together. In an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

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